empty
18.03.2025 05:04 AM
GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 18: The Pound Persistently Climbs Upward

This image is no longer relevant

On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued to lean toward growth. There were no significant events in the UK throughout the day, while in the U.S., only one report was released, which was not the cause of the new decline in the U.S. dollar. The movement in GBP/USD now resembles inertia—where the market continues to buy simply because the currency keeps rising. But what has been driving the pound's recent gains? The UK economy has once again contracted, and industrial production has declined. The Bank of England is not planning to cut interest rates this week, nor is the Federal Reserve. Both rates currently stand at 4.5%. If neither central bank intends to cut rates, why is only the pound rising?

The U.S. economy could face a recession due to Donald Trump's policies—a real possibility. However, moving from 2–3% quarterly growth to a recession is still a long way off. In contrast, the UK will likely face fewer hurdles in reaching that point as its economy continues to show either minimal growth or no growth. Trump's economic aggression may bypass the UK. However, even the current trade wars with China and Canada are enough to slow down the global economy. And if the global economy slows down, so will the British economy.

Thus, whether the BoE lowers rates or not is irrelevant. The UK economy has nothing to boast about compared to the U.S. economy. However, as already mentioned, there is no apparent reason for the dollar's decline. If one ignores all the positive fundamental and macroeconomic factors favoring the dollar, the British currency could continue to rise for another year or two. But what's the issue? In our analyses, we try to consider all factors, and when a movement appears illogical, we call it as it is—"illogical." We don't try to come up with justifications for why it's happening. In hindsight, any movement can be explained using the classic "rise in risk-on/risk-off sentiment" narrative. But does it help anyone to read about "rising risk appetite" while watching price movements? And how can one predict such a rise in risk appetite in advance? How long will it last?

That's why we either provide forecasts explaining our expectations or highlight inconsistencies between market fundamentals and current price action. For example, at this point, trading should be based purely on technicals using timeframes of four hours and below. This week, the Fed and the BoE are set to meet, but we cannot predict their rhetoric or how the market will react. The pound continues to climb persistently and doesn't need news to support its growth.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days stands at 67 pips, which is considered "moderate to low" for this pair. On Tuesday, March 18, we expect the pair to move between 1.2919 and 1.3053. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the downtrend remains intact, as seen in the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator has not recently entered overbought or oversold areas.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.2939

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2695

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3184

R3 – 1.3306

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a medium-term downtrend. We still do not consider long positions, as we view the current upward movement as a correction that has turned into an illogical, panic-driven rally. If you are trading purely based on technical analysis, long positions are possible with targets at 1.3053 and 1.3062, provided the price stays above the moving average. However, sell orders remain far more relevant, with targets at 1.2207 and 1.2146, as the upward correction on the daily timeframe will eventually end. The pound appears extremely overbought and unjustifiably expensive, but Donald Trump continues to push the dollar into the abyss. Predicting how long this "Trump-driven" dollar collapse will last is challenging.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 13 de agosto. A la espera del viernes...

El par de divisas GBP/USD volvió a negociarse de forma bastante apática el martes. Por la mañana, en el Reino Unido se publicaron datos sobre desempleo y salarios, pero resultaron

Paolo Greco 07:38 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 13 de agosto. Trump y China llegaron a un acuerdo. Otra vez temporalmente.

El par de divisas EUR/USD volvió a negociarse de forma bastante tranquila. Por un lado, el par no se queda inmóvil, pero al mismo tiempo la volatilidad es baja

Paolo Greco 07:38 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 12 de agosto. Una inflación que ya no decide nada.

El par de divisas GBP/USD el lunes se movió de forma muy débil. Como ya dijimos, el trasfondo fundamental sigue siendo fuerte y resonante, pero los traders parecen haberse tomado

Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-08-12 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 12 de agosto. Nunca había pasado, y ahora otra vez.

El par de divisas EUR/USD el lunes continuó negociándose de forma súper tranquila. El trasfondo macroeconómico estuvo ausente por segundo día de negociación consecutivo, y el trasfondo fundamental el mercado

Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-08-12 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. Vista previa de la semana. Un paquete de estadísticas británicas que la libra no necesita.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continúa un sólido movimiento alcista después de una corrección de un mes. Para la corrección había fundamentos técnicos (el precio no puede moverse siempre

Paolo Greco 04:31 2025-08-11 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. Vista previa de la semana. Al dólar le esperan nuevas pruebas.

El par de divisas EUR/USD muestra todos los signos de reanudación de la tendencia alcista, que debería llevar el nombre de Trump. La caída de la moneda estadounidense comenzó prácticamente

Paolo Greco 04:31 2025-08-11 UTC+2

WTI - West Texas Intermediate. Análisis de precios. Pronóstico. Trump amenaza a India y China con aranceles adicionales sobre la importación de petróleo ruso, lo que genera preocupaciones sobre la redirección de los suministros.

El petróleo West Texas Intermediate (WTI), que es el referente del crudo estadounidense, rebotó desde un mínimo de cinco semanas y subió por encima de los $63,50 en medio

Irina Yanina 04:25 2025-08-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 7 de agosto. ¿Qué nos tiene preparado el Banco de Inglaterra?

El par de divisas GBP/USD el miércoles volvió a negociarse con bastante calma, pero la balanza poco a poco se inclina a favor de la libra (y también del euro)

Paolo Greco 04:25 2025-08-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de agosto. Trump inicia una nueva ronda de escalada en la guerra comercial.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante la mayor parte del miércoles volvió a negociarse con una volatilidad muy baja. Esta semana hay realmente muy pocos eventos macroeconómicos, pero al mismo

Paolo Greco 04:25 2025-08-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 6 de agosto. La libra espera el veredicto del Banco de Inglaterra.

El par de divisas GBP/USD se mantuvo prácticamente sin cambios durante la mayor parte del martes. En principio, no hay nada sorprendente en esto, ya que al menos

Paolo Greco 04:23 2025-08-06 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.