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05.03.2024 08:55 AMAfter the rise of euro and pound to the upper limits of their ranges, where they have been for the past couple of weeks, a gradual movement towards the lower boundary should begin, especially considering the empty macroeconomic calendar yesterday. However, nothing of the sort happened, and on the contrary, the market even attempted to rise slightly.
Although the attempt proved unsuccessful and quotes quickly rolled back to their previous values, maintaining the balance today will be difficult due to the upcoming producer price data in the eurozone. Forecasts say the decline will slow down from -10.6% to -7.4%, indicating the gradual normalization of inflationary processes in the eurozone. This means that the European Central Bank will likely start easing its monetary policy soon, which will lead to euro falling in price and dragging the pound with it. However, the change will not be significant, as the market will simply shift towards the lower boundary of the range.
EUR/USD has been moving within the horizontal channel of 1.0800/1.0850 for a week, deviating from the specified boundaries temporarily. If this continues, the upper boundary area could serve as resistance, leading to an increase in the volume of short positions.
Similarly, in GBP/USD, the levels of 1.2600 and 1.2700 serve as boundaries, with the latter acting as resistance. This already led to a price rebound.
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