Analisis Trade & Kajian: 23.05.2019 - Euro will fall and there is...

23.05.2019 03:19 PM

Euro will fall and there is no reason for optimism at all

Business growth in the eurozone has accelerated but it is difficult to call it good news for the euro. The rise was minimal due to the ongoing downturn in the manufacturing industry. The data confirms the words of the ECB President Mario Draghi about the need for "greater support for the eurozone economy." The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which is considered to be an indicator of the state of the economy, rose only to 51.6 points in May from 51.5 points in April. At present, one cannot hope for stronger growth in the second quarter, as the economy is in limbo. Indicators suggest that GDP growth is likely to be 0.2 percent in this quarter, which is less than the previous forecast of 0.3 percent.

Separately, it is possible to note more pessimistic moods from business leaders for the first time since August 2014 as they have reduced the number of staff. The employment index fell to 49.0 from 50.7 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector is noticeably lagging behind the service sector, which is currently dominant. It is true that growth here has slowed down. Moreover, PMI fell from 52.8 to 52.5 points, which contradicts expectations of moderate growth to 53.0 points. The export business among service firms, including the trade between member countries of a block, has suffered due to weaker global growth, as well as trade tensions and Brexit. The sub-index fell to 48.1 points, which is one of the weakest values since IHS Markit began collecting these data at the end of 2014.

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