Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 149.85 price level occurred when the MACD indicator started to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a proper entry point for selling the dollar. This was an expected move, especially given the pair's sluggish attempts to rise towards the end of the week. As a result, USD/JPY moved down 40 pips, reaching the target level of 149.48. Buying from there on the rebound did not yield the expected profit. Today, it is unlikely that we will see anything extraordinary from the pair, as no significant data are scheduled for release from Japan or the US. Most likely, if the dollar continues to decline, buyers will seize the opportunity and attempt to buy into the dip, given that expectations for more aggressive action from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate hikes were dispelled last week after remarks from several central banks. I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2 for intraday trading.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 149.37 (green line on the chart) with a target of 149.81 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 149.81, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). An increase in the pair can be expected, but only after active defense of the local lows. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.11 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards the opposite levels of 149.37 and 149.81 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking through the 149.11 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 148.76 level, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips back from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if weak activity is near the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.37 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 149.11 and 148.76 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line – the entry price to buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price to sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely;

MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's important to use overbought and oversold zones.

Important:

Novice traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.