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21.02.2025 01:31 PM
美元/日元分析與預測
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美元/日元對目前正在強勢反彈,從149.30-149.25水準攀升近150個點,這是自12月3日以來的最低點。日元因日本央行(BoJ)行長植田和男的言論而走弱,他表示如果長期利率急劇上升,準備增加政府債券採購。這些言論導致日本國債(JGB)收益率下降,觸發了日元的廣泛拋售。

此外,適度的美元強勢也在支持美元/日元的復甦。然而,沃爾瑪疲弱的銷售預測引發了對美國消費者健康狀況的擔憂,同時擔心美國總統唐納德·特朗普的政策措施可能會推動通脹,並損害消費支出,致使美元的進一步上漲受限。

與此同時,對日本央行加息的預期上升,加上今天發布的強勁日本CPI數據,可能會阻止日元的大量拋售,從而限制該匯對的上行潛力。日本的核心國家CPI在1月份同比上升至兩年高點的4.0%,高於之前的3.6%,突顯出通脹壓力的加劇。再加上日本央行政策決策者談到貨幣政策調整的必要性,這表明日本央行可能比此前預期更激進地收緊利率。

技術展望

昨日持續跌破151.00-150.90水準被視為新的看跌信號。此外,日線圖振盪指標仍深處在負值區域,遠未達到超賣狀態,強化了美元/日元最小阻力路徑仍是下行的觀點。這表明任何進一步的上行運動可能會在上述區域遭遇強烈阻力。

然而,短期的買盤興趣可能會引發空頭回補性反彈,可能會拉升美元/日元至151.45的中間水準,甚至是心理關口152.00。然而,任何進一步的漲幅預計會在鄰近200日簡單移動平均線(SMA)的152.70點左右受到限制。突破此水準將偏向看多方。

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另一方面,心理關口150.00現在起到即時支撐的作用,接下來是149.60。如突破多月支撐位149.30-149.25,則可能會加速下跌至149.00,下一個主要目標位是2024年12月的低點148.65。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025
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